If you want to sell something to someone, you need to understand their likely future behaviour. What factors will influence what they’ll do next? One of the worst ways to do this is to ask them. People are very bad at predicting their future behaviour. Two of the best ways are:
- To look at their past behaviour. People form strong habits and patterns of behaviour over time. These can be projected forward. More on this another time.
- To look at what their friends are doing. If their friends start drinking pineapple flavoured vodka, they probably will too. If their friends buy Sony Ericsson phones, they probably will too. How might we provide better tools and incentives for inner friend circle recommendations?
Friends outside a Tokyo subway station all looking at their mate’s new phone.
